Fantasy Overhyped or Underhyped - Week 11
Updated: Nov 23, 2020
Welcome to another new article series, my spin on a weekly start/sit, fantasy overhyped or underhyped. In these articles, I’ll be picking a few players each week that I am higher on than ECR, and that I am lower on than ECR. If you’re not aware of what ECR is, it stands for Expert Consensus Ranking which is used by FantasyPros on their site to combine the rankings of analysts from various sites. If you don’t use FantasyPros, or ECR in general, I highly recommend it. To me, it’s one of the single best tools for your basic fantasy football decision making. That being said, each analyst has varying opinions, and potentially biases, on certain players. These articles will be the place where I justify my own differing opinions that may adjust your outlook on a player for a start or sit decision each week. Additionally, we’ll look back at the previous week's article to judge whether my ranking was better or worse than ECR, which will be tallied for the rest of the season.
So, without further ado, let’s get into it.
Overhyped: Joe Burrow, CIN (QB17 vs. ECR QB13)
The Washington Football Team defense still seems to be flying under the radar. Washington currently ranks (per game) 8th in passing touchdowns allowed, 1st in passing yards allowed, and 11th in half-PPR fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Not only that but their defensive strength in their pass rush also dramatically exploits Cincinnati’s lack of pass protection. Joe Burrow has been sacked 32 times this season, third-most in the NFL, and I’m expecting more of the same for Burrow in this matchup. Washington has allowed a top-20 quarterback performance in just four out of their nine matchups this season. Burrow should finish around that area as well.
Underhyped: Andy Dalton, DAL (QB18 vs. ECR QB23)
What we’ve seen from Andy Dalton, and the Cowboys offense, in general, has not been encouraging to say the least. Dalton hasn’t exactly had any mouth-watering matchups either though.
This week, Dalton gets the Vikings, who haven’t exactly been stout in their pass defense this season. Coming off their bye week, I’m expecting the Cowboys to have a sharp gameplan offensively, which should involve plenty of the passing game, as the Vikings are pretty solid against the run. A QB23 scores around 10-12 fantasy points on average so far this season, and I don’t see Dalton being limited to that in a game where the Cowboys will likely be in a pass-heavy game script.
Overhyped: Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (RB19 vs. ECR RB12)
Zeke Elliott has not had an RB2 finish or better since week 5 this season. Since then, he has finished as the RB28, 40, 32, 29. In that same timeframe, Zeke has also seen his snap percentage drop to ~65% range, down from ~85%.
With the Cowboys' offense not being as explosive as it once was with Dak Prescott, Zeke will continue to see less opportunity to score, and fewer touches in general. This week, Zeke gets the Vikings, who as I just mentioned have a decent run defense. The Vikings are allowing 17 half-PPR fantasy points per game (12th) to RBs, while their secondary is performing as the complete opposite. Zeke has also been dealing with an injury that has potentially led to his limited snap percentage these past few weeks. Zeke is still startable, but I’d temper your expectations in this one.
Underhyped: Kalen Ballage, LAC (RB14 vs. ECR RB18)
Honestly, as much as you feel gross reading that headline, I feel just as gross writing it, but it is what it is. In his two games with the Chargers, Ballage has been given 18 and 24 opportunities and has finished as the RB4 and RB17 in those games.
For whatever reason, Ballage has become the lead back in LA while Ekeler is out. This week, Ballage gets the Jets at home, which as I’m sure many of you are aware, happens to be a “revenge” game. To put it plainly, the Jets are not good against the run, and with Ballage getting this much opportunity, it’s hard to not see him as a fringe RB1. I’m expecting Ballage to see around 20 opportunities again, and have a solid shot at a touchdown for around 15-18 half-PPR fantasy points.
Overhyped: Robby Anderson, CAR (WR24 vs. ECR WR19)
With all the unknown surrounding Carolina’s quarterback situation, I’m surprised Anderson is ranked as a middling WR2. It is quite probable that we get PJ Walker at quarterback for the Panthers this week.
The Panthers game script is likely to feature a lot of Mike Davis, and not as much PJ Walker, partly due to the fact that the Lions are terrible against the run (3rd most yards allowed, most fantasy points allowed) and partly due to the limited practice reps PJ Walker has with the first-team offense. Robby Anderson hasn’t finished as a WR20 or better since week 5 at the Falcons, who happen to be one of the worst defenses against the passing game. This isn’t a knock on Anderson the player as much as it’s a knock on his situation currently. I’m expecting a lot of the run game here, meaning limited opportunity and limited touchdown upside for Anderson.
Underhyped: CeeDee Lamb, DAL (WR31 vs. ECR WR38)
For the same reasons that Andy Dalton is underhyped, CeeDee Lamb is as well. Again, Minnesota’s secondary has struggled this season and coming off their bye, I’m expecting the Cowboys coaching staff to game plan with this in mind.
Currently at the WR38, according to ECR, Lamb isn’t a startable fantasy option this week, and I couldn’t disagree more. I believe Lamb is a solid flex option this week with middling WR2 upside in a game where the Cowboys will likely be in catch up mode.