NFL Pick 6: Week 10
Updated: Nov 21, 2020
Welcome back to another weekly NFL Pick 6. Last week was a solid week for us going 5-2 on our picks. This week we’ve got some more interesting lines to talk about, and spoiler alert, we’ll be taking a lot of overs.
Let’s get into it.
Cooper Kupp OVER 67.5 receiving yards (-110)
Starting off similar to last week, this line is just too low, plain and simple. I understand there has been some inconsistency in the Rams passing game with respect to who’s getting all the targets/yards, but this week that simply won’t matter. In a projected shootout (total currently at 54.5), the Rams are coming off a bye to meet by far the worst defense against opposing wide receivers.
Seattle currently allows 279.5 receiving yards per game to wide receivers alone, the most by over 60 yards (Atlanta in second at 215.1). While Seattle’s defense has been terrible, their offense has been the polar opposite. This fact will keep the game close and competitive, meaning a negative game-script is unlikely for Kupp. Coming off a 20 target game (yes 20), Kupp will be heavily involved once again, and should easily top 67.5 receiving yards.
Dalvin Cook OVER 16.5 receiving yards (-110)
This will be another instance of betting the number with Cook. In the past few weeks we’ve seen Cook live up to the extreme talent that he is, which makes this line somewhat confusing. The Bears are a tough matchup for sure, but this receiving total is still too small.
Cook has hit this mark in 5/7 of his starts, including the game against Seattle where he was taken out early due to injury. We’ve also seen over the past few weeks the overall usage Cook is seeing increase by a decent margin, including his production in the screen game, which I can see being the case again here. The Bears have allowed an average of 33 receiving yards per game to running backs, and while I understand that Cook may not be the best receiving back in the NFL, he’s certainly not as bad as this line might suggest. The game-script for Cook here is also likely to be beneficial, as the Bears have been brutal against opposing wide receivers. Why is that relevant? This can cause a lot more check-downs because either no one is open downfield, or the pass rush gets to the quarterback fast. Who will be the beneficiary of these check-downs? Dalvin Cook.
Rams vs. Seahawks OVER 54.5 total points (-110)
Here we’re just picking on the Seattle defense once again, and honestly, I don’t feel bad about it at all. The Seahawks have been brutal on defense this year, as I’ve mentioned already, which may end up costing Russell Wilson a Super Bowl appearance this year.
The over is 6-2 so far this season in Seahawks games, and the Seahawks have scored over 30 points in 7 of 8 games. The Rams are coming off a bye, against a divisional opponent they know very well, so I’m expecting a solid game-plan from the offensive guru Sean McVay. Honestly, I’d still feel confident taking the over if the line was four points higher at 58.5 Look for the Rams to be piling points on with the Seahawks offense doing their best to keep pace.
Nick Chubb OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-110)
This is a similar pick to what we did with McCaffrey last week, where the line for a player coming off injury is way too safe. A line of 70.5 rushing yards is probably close to 25 yards too little. Chubb has been practicing in full this week, so he’s clearly ready to play, and also, why would the Browns rush him back when they have Hunt doing a solid job in replacement? Because he’s fully healthy. Don’t be nervous about the injury here.
To make things more encouraging, the conditions are pretty much perfect for Chubb to hammer the over here. The Texans are currently allowing the most rushing yards per game at 159.5, while the Browns are one of the top rushing teams in the NFL (8th in rush attempts per game, 5th in rushing yards per game). If that wasn’t good enough, the weather in Cleveland this Sunday is also expected to be brutal for the passing game, with calls for rain and significant wind gusts, which should exaggerate the running game for both teams. Even if it was clear, blue skies in Cleveland, I’d feel confident taking the over here.
Packers vs. Jaguars OVER 47.5 total points (-110)
The Packers are one of the top-scoring teams in the NFL currently, and are only getting healthier every week. Now with a healthy Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, the Packers will be looking to dominate the Jaguars at home this week. Fortunately for them, the Jaguars currently give up the second-most points, while the Packers are scoring the third-most.
While the Packers should have no problems scoring on offense, we saw that Jake Lutton of the Jaguars can actually be a competent quarterback, almost upsetting the 7-point favorite Texans in Week 9. Meanwhile, the Packers defense is likely to be without their star corner this week, Jaire Alexander, who at times has been the saving grace of their defense. Even with Alexander, Green Bay has simply an average defense across the board. Green Bay should have no problem scoring 35+ points, and Jacksonville will likely be in catchup mode all game, providing for a fast-pace, high-scoring game.
Kyler Murray OVER 51.5 rushing yards (-110)
Kyler Murray has been on a tear these past few weeks, running for 247 yards on 35 attempts in his last three games. This season, Murray has topped 51.5 rushing yards in 6 of 8 games. On the other side of the ball, the Bills’ defense has been underperforming to what their expectations had been based on previous seasons, and their roster in general.
Coming into this game, the Bills give up the 11th most rushing yards to quarterbacks, and will at least be without four players due to COVID-IR, including starting corner Josh Norman. Like most Cardinals games, this one is projected to be a shootout, with the game total currently at 56.5 points, the highest for Week 10 currently. Murray’s ability to run and scramble out of the pocket is a huge part of what makes Arizona’s offense successful, and in a projected high-scoring game, I’m expecting Murray’s running ability to be heavily involved.
EXTRA POINT: Dolphins -1.5 vs. Chargers (-110)
This is a line that plenty of people are confused about, including myself. The Dolphins have been playing great football in recent weeks, which is a weird thing to say out loud, as it’s been a long time since a Dolphins team has been relevant. This season is quite different for the Dolphins, as they’re hunting down a playoff spot, rather than a top selection in next season’s draft. The Chargers, on the other hand, are in quite a different scenario. This game, they’ll be without Justin Jackson, who’s currently the starting running back with Ekeler out, and they’ll also be without star defensive end Joey Bosa. The Dolphins are the better team, at home, against a team flying across the country, and laying just 1.5 points. Take the Dolphins.