• Justin Dodds

NFL Pick 6: Week 10 Edition

Updated: Nov 21, 2020

We’re back for another week of NFL Pick 6. This week has a tough slate due to the lesser amount of games with 6 teams on bye so we may not have the most confident of picks this week but I’ll be sure to reflect that in the confidence rating. Another 3-3 week last week for us but I might say that it should’ve been much better than that. Our first loss was the Colts -1 which would have pushed if Adam Vinatieri had made the game winning field goal. I’d say I’m surprised he missed it but he’s been very inconsistent this year. Fortunately the line shifted to what I saw as high as Colts +1.5 so maybe some could have gotten a fortunate line for that game. The second loss of the week was courtesy of the Cleveland Browns and honestly, I’m stunned that the Browns are this bad. For such a talented roster, the Browns have been nothing but underwhelming all year. Finally, the last loss was the Jets -3 @ the Dolphins with the Jets handing the Dolphins their first win on a silver platter. I’m not sure what’s wrong with this team as they as well are a relatively talented roster on paper, but just 1 win all year against Dallas.

Against The Spread

PICK: Chiefs -6 @ Titans, Confidence 4 / 5.

Vegas is expecting the return of Patrick Mahomes to be a relatively explosive one as KC jumped as favourites by 2.5 extra points when Mahomes was declared as the starter. The Chiefs also went from around -175 on money-line to currently -275. Mahomes isn’t the entire factor here though, Chris Jones is. Returning last week from injury, Jones’ impact was immediately felt as the Chiefs rush defense went from a vulnerable one to a defense that allowed the league-leading rusher only 21-71 for 3.4 yards per carry on the ground. That’s very impressive. I believe the Chiefs could run away with this game as the Titans will struggle to sustain drives if the Chiefs run defense can play like it did last week.

PICK: Cowboys -3.5 vs. Vikings, Confidence 3 / 5.

This will be another interesting matchup as it will tell us a lot about both teams and their vulnerabilities. Kirk Cousins is a different quarterback in prime-time and when the opposing defense can bring pressure, and not a different quarterback in a good way. I think this game will be a close, low scoring matchup due to both teams most likely attempting to establish the run game early in order to aid their quarterbacks in sustaining drives. In this game all things equal, I trust Dak and the Cowboys offense more than Kirk Cousins on the road in a prime-time game, so for that reason, I’ll take the Cowboys.

PICK: Dolphins +10 @ Colts, Confidence - 3 / 5.

The Colts will be severely limited on offense for this game as they will be without all of Brissett, Campbell, & Hilton. Last week I expected the Colts to handle business on the road against a shaky offense at Pittsburgh, and yet that had to come down to a last-minute field goal that ultimately didn’t win them the game. The fact of the matter is, the Dolphins are hot coming off a win at home vs. the Jets while the Colts just watched their kicker horrifically shank a game-winning field goal and on top of all that, they also are without their breakout starting QB and their best two receivers. Oh, by the way, they also have to give 10 points to the Dolphins. No thanks.

PICK: Rams -4.5 @ Steelers, Confidence - 4 / 5.

I think this line is a slight overreaction to last week’s result for Pittsburgh where they barely hung on to beat the Colts by 2. The Colts and the Rams are two wildly different teams offensively where the Rams rank 8th in points for and the Colts rank 17th. Yes, the Steelers defense is much improved with Minkah Fitzpatrick adding to their already decent secondary with Joe Haden, but the mismatch on the other side of the ball will be too much for the Steelers to handle. Pittsburgh will be without James Conner again while the Rams will be without Brandin Cooks as notable out’s. Both defenses are pretty good, but the Rams are coming off a bye which means they’re better rested, and have had more time to gameplan for this matchup which is why I think the Rams take this game comfortably by a TD or more.

PICK: Bears -3 vs. Lions, Confidence - 2 / 5.

There are rumblings around the league that suggest Matt Stafford might miss this game with a lingering back issue that has caused some people to suggest he miss this game. Adam Schefter is saying he is a true game-time decision, and while he might play, there is definitely reason to believe Stafford is nowhere close to 100% healthy. The Lions already have practically zero running game, so while the Bears have been terrible the last month, I do believe this is a favourable matchup for them to get back on track. The Lions have gone 1-2 in their last 3 matchups all with Matt Stafford throwing for over 300 yards every time, and the Lions failing to top 100 yards rushing in three straight games. The Bears' defense is not as good as they were last year by any means, but giving them a home game vs. a division rival where they are forced into a one-dimensional offense is a tough scenario to convince me not to take the home team. The only reason for the low confidence is the lack of full information regarding Stafford’s availability. If he is inactive I’d imagine the line jumps to around Bears -5.

PICK: Saints -14 vs. Falcons, Confidence - 2 / 5.

This is a similar scenario to the Rams and Steelers matchup where the better team is also coming off a bye. The Saints dominated the Cardinals two weeks back at home in Drew Brees’ return to the team and this is a pretty significant factor to why I feel comfortable swallowing 14 points for the Saints. The Cardinals are definitely a better team defensively and with a healthy Matt Ryan they are probably similar on offense, however, Matt Ryan is coming off an ankle injury so we are yet to see how close to 100% he truly is. The Saints will also get Alvin Kamara back for this game which provides another weapon for the Saints offense to abuse mismatches with. I have a tough time seeing how the Falcons can keep pace with the Saints offensively if the Falcons defense ranks 30th in points allowed. With all that said, this is still 14 points, which is a lot to give to a team that has a pretty good offense when healthy. New Orleans wins this game 10 times out of 10, but by 14 is a different story, which is why only 2 / 5 confidence.

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