NFL Pick 6: Week 11 Edition
Welcome back to a slightly adjusted edition of NFL Pick 6. I say slightly adjusted as we’ll be separating what was before a brief review into the games of last week that were correct and incorrect into a new, separate article on either Tuesday or Wednesday’s discussing the previous games, as well as the Thursday night game. With that out of the way, let’s get into the week 11 picks.
Against The Spread
PICK: Vikings -9 vs. Broncos, Confidence 3 / 5.
Last week, the Vikings came out in a game I expected them to crumble and proved me wrong essentially removing Zeke Elliot from the game along with Kirk Cousins playing well. The Vikings have yet to lose a home game this year and now are coming off an impressive win last week at Dallas to host a team a quarter as good as the team they just upset on the road. This game comes down to mismatches on both sides of the ball for me. The Vikings are 7th in rushing yards allowed defensively while the Broncos rely heavily on the run to aid their new quarterback in moving the ball and still are just 28th in passing yards per game offensively. The Vikings like to control the ball on offense and run the ball with Dalvin Cook where they are 3rd league-wide in rushing yards per game, while the Broncos are just average in defending the run. The Broncos clear strong on defense is their passing defense but I don’t see the Vikings having to rely on Cousins to win them the game through the air due to their prowess in the running game. The Vikings also have a clear edge in turnover differential where they are 6th in the league with a +5 rating while the Broncos are 23rd with a -3 rating. I expect the Vikings to walk away with this one in a potential blowout at home.
PICK: Texans +4.5 @ Ravens, Confidence 3 / 5.
Lamar Jackson has taken a lot of people’s MVP votes over the last 2 weeks due to his performances against the Patriots and Bengals and while yes, he has been amazing, we can’t rely on getting to beat up on the Bengals every week. This week they get the Texans at home in a matchup where their defense will have to show up strong to win them the game. When people picture the Texans, they think of Deshaun Watson running for his life in the pocket and magically slinging one downfield to get them first downs, touchdowns, etc. While this does happen, you also have to respect their run game they’ve seemingly developed out of nowhere with the 4th most rushing yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have dominated teams on the ground, but now they’ll get a defense that hasn’t allowed 100 yards rushing to a team since week 2. This includes backs like Fournette, Jacobs, Mack, Freeman, and McCaffrey. The Texans have proved they can stop the run which I think will keep the game closer with one team pulling out a win by a field goal. I believe the Texans can upset the Ravens here, so knowing I also get 4.5 points is an easy sell.
PICK: Jets +2.5 @ Redskins, Confidence - 3 / 5.
This line is actually pretty funny to me as I’m not really sure how you pick a “favourite” here but I guess they just fell back on home field and gave the Jets 2.5 points. This game appears to be like picking the better of two evils as both teams are just terrible, but I feel like there are more positive things surrounding the Jets than the Redskins, so let’s break it down quickly. The Jets just announced Gase as the coach for next year instilling a will for the players to “prove themselves” for next year as well, while the Redskins barely have a head coach. The Redskins haven’t scored a touchdown or more than 10 points in 3 straight weeks while playing against good defenses, and they also haven’t had over 200 yards passing since Week 3. For the Jets, they just put up 34 in a comeback “home” win against the Giants. The Jets scored the same amount of points in 1 game vs. the Giants than the Redskins have in their last 4 games combined. I’m not convinced the Redskins can do anything on offense let alone score points whereas I just watched the Giants put up 34 so I’ll take the Jets and the points here.
PICK: Raiders -11.5 vs. Bengals, Confidence - 3 / 5.
The Zac Taylor opening year of NFL coaching is not going as per the plan I’d imagine. The Bengals are hot off an absolute romping last week at home vs. the Ravens to come to this game at 0-9 and deservingly so. The Bengals are probably the worst team statistically across all categories if you were to work it out in passing offense and defense along with rushing. A few key things to remember for this game are how badly the Bengals lost last week to a run-heavy team at home. Now they are going to Oakland with their last or second last-ranked defense in all of rushing attempts allowed, rushing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed, rushing yards per attempt allowed, average drive yardage allowed, and finally total yards allowed. The Bengals are quite simply a terrible team and the Raiders actually have something to play for sitting at 5-4. I don’t see how the Bengals keep this game close in another blowout that the Raiders come out of with a new record of 6-4.
PICK: Cardinals +10 @ 49ers, Confidence - 3 / 5.
I don’t think the Cardinals get the respect they deserve simply because of their record. Let’s keep in mind they literally just played the 49ers 2 weeks ago where the game was decided by just 3 points, and they also happen to play in one of the league's most difficult divisions. 10 points is just too much to give to a team who is pretty good offensively, while also not turning the ball over, and their opposition is without some difference makers. George Kittle has been ruled out and Sanders is saying he is going to play through pain insinuating he is nowhere near 100% healthy. The 49ers are a great team, but they showed that they can be beaten last week by a team with a good offense. Now I’m not saying the Cardinals and Seahawks are equivalent caliber offenses, but I’m also not saying that I expect the Cardinals to win here. I see this game being close due to it being a divisional game and the Cardinals being a dynamic offense that can score points.
PICK: Rams -6 vs. Bears, Confidence - 3 / 5.
Now I know what you’re thinking, ew, Jared Goff & the ugly Rams of last week, however, this week is a much different week for the Rams. First, they can’t lose any more of these games where they are favourites and clearly should win as they are only 5-4 with a somewhat difficult schedule upcoming for their playoff race. As far as the actual game itself goes, this one lines up much better for the Rams than last week. David Montgomery has been missing practice this week and has been said to be a game-time decision, yet even if he does end up playing he’ll be nowhere near 100%. With that in mind, this makes the Bears offense a lot more one dimensional than it already is. The Bears hate to run the ball and they also could be forced into running with Tarik Cohen which probably would result in them just not running the ball, while on the outside they only really have Allen Robinson (who’ll draw Jalen Ramsey) and the great Mitch Trubisky to lead the way offensively against a Rams defense that has been pretty good since adding Ramsey. This is going to be a battle of two terribly performing teams, but I don’t believe the Rams are actually a bad team apart from having bad weeks here and there. This game looks nice from the Rams side of the field and I think they’ll take this one with relative ease, especially if Montgomery misses.