NFL Pick 6: Week 7 Edition
Welcome to the week 7 edition of NFL Pick 6, my article series where I pick my favourite 6 against the spread games. I will also have my BettingPros accuracy competition picks towards the end of the article in case you just want to see my opinion on every game pick. Keep in mind that odds change and vary from site to site, so as a general rule of thumb, I’d be willing to bet these picks within 1 extra point unless otherwise stated. So for example, if I said I wanted MIN -2.5 but your line was -3.5, my opinion still stands. One of the games I was confident picking this week was the Chiefs by 3 points, but since that game happened before this article is being posted, I’ll exclude that one from the 6, but one game may have slightly lower confidence because of this. With that out of the way, let’s get into the game picks.
Against The Spread
PICK: Rams -3 @ Falcons, Confidence - 4 / 5.
Listen, I get it, Jared Goff looked like an average CFL quarterback against the 49ers, but the 49ers are a completely different animal than the Falcons on defense. We all know that the Rams have tons of talent offensively in Gurley, Woods, Cooks, Kupp, & (maybe?) Goff, as well as a very smart offensive-minded coach in Sean McVay. The Rams were just embarrassed at home by the 49ers and now get a struggling 1-5 Falcons team who is tied for last with the Dolphins in team sacks. The Falcons defense is struggling with: giving up the 6th most total yards, 2nd most points per game, 4th most first downs, and are near last in every passing category. The Falcons have given up 34, 53, 24, & 27 points in their last 4 games. I think the Rams bounce back in this game through the aid of the abysmal Falcons defense as well as adding Jalen Ramsey this week to help with their own defensive struggles.
PICK: Texans +1 @ Colts, Confidence - 3 / 5.
The Texans are known to struggle when Deshaun Watson is sacked, but have you noticed that the team looks completely different when he isn’t sacked at all? That has happened twice out of three times in Watson’s career in back to back weeks where the Texans put up 53 against the Falcons at home, but then went and beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead by a touchdown. The addition of Laremy Tunsil is paying its dividends in wins and great QB performances out of Watson. The Texans also get Kenny Stills back for this game which allows yet another talented receiver to get open downfield for Watson if given time. The Colts have 13 sacks on the year which is in the bottom third of the NFL. They also relied heavily on their run game in Kansas City to upset the Chiefs in week 5, but the Texans are quite the opposite against the run in comparison to the Chiefs only allowing the 12th fewest (440) yards rushing to the Chiefs’ worst league-wide rushing defense allowing almost 900 yards rushing in 6 games. I think this game will be close as it’s a divisional game for the division lead, but ultimately I see the Texans winning outright.
PICK: Giants -3 vs. Cardinals, Confidence - 3 / 5.
The Cardinals looked good last week against the Falcons, but the Giants are coming in with two of their star players back in Barkley and Engram to help Daniel Jones out offensively. The Cardinals have been allowing pretty much everything defensively, and while they’ll get Patrick Peterson back for this game, I’m more fearful about Barkley and Engram eating away at the Cardinals as their rushing defense is not great and they have been torched by tight ends all year. I think both teams will be able to move the ball with relative ease, but I prefer the home team in this one.
PICK: Seahawks -3 vs. Ravens, Confidence - 3 / 5.
While the Seahawks are vulnerable through the air allowing bottom third passing yards against in the NFL, their rushing defense is the opposite. The focal point of the Ravens offense has been their run game with Lamar Jackson & company, but I don’t see that working as well as it did in their last 3 weeks against the Bengals, Steelers, & Browns. In those games, the Ravens managed 25, 26, & 23 points for leading to being embarrassed by the Browns at home, and squeaking out two divisional wins. On the other side of the ball, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense has been dominant while the Ravens have shown vulnerability to much weaker teams than the Seahawks. I think the Hawks win this one by around a touchdown.
PICK: Jets +10 vs. Patriots, Confidence - 3 / 5.
I probably would have been on the fence about this game if the spread was NE -6.5, but the Patriots giving 10 points in New York is a tough sell. The Patriots haven’t covered 10 points in New York for five out of their last 6 games there. The Jets offense looked much improved with Sam Darnold last week and the Cowboys defense is not terrible which gives me confidence in Darnold and the Jets offense. The Patriots’ defense has been very good, but they haven’t really been tested so far this year as their opponent's current combined record is 10-23. New England will be without Josh Gordon and both starting tight ends, as well as Edelman & Dorsett playing, but also banged up. I think this game will be close and low scoring considering both defenses are pretty good, but ultimately I see the Patriots squeaking this one out.
PICK: 49ers -9.5 @ Redskins, Confidence - 2 / 5
The 49ers have been great so far this year, especially on defense where different from last year, they’re causing plus turnover differential. The Redskins have lost by 10 or more to everyone they’ve played besides the Dolphins, and a shaky week 1 Eagles. Offensively, the 49ers have been running the ball like no other team in the NFL, leading or co-leading the NFL in attempts, yards, and touchdowns. I think the 49ers will dominate time of possession in this game through long drives sustained by their run game and ruin the chances for the Redskins to put up many points at all. This is what they did last week at the Rams and they covered 13 points so I am confident taking that same 10 points in Washington.