NFL Pick 6: Week 8 Edition
Welcome back to NFL Pick 6 where I seem to give mediocre advice on games to pick as per last week… ugh. Anyway, let’s briefly recap the games from last week. Rams -3 @ Falcons was a win and a pretty convincing one, it was also my most confident pick with 4 / 5 confidence. Texans +1 @ Colts was a loss and it didn’t look good for the Texans early as they seemingly couldn’t block very well for Deshaun Watson even though they had for the last 2 weeks, & Will Fuller exited the game rather early and never returned. The game came down to 1 last drive opportunity to win the game for the Texans and ultimately they failed, however, I think with Will Fuller that drive, and the game, ends differently. Next was the Giants -3 vs. Cardinals. The Giants and Daniel Jones didn’t look very good here, especially at adapting to the weather conditions. The Giants struggled to maintain drives early, while the Cardinals rushed the ball effectively and got out to an early lead which may have been more difficult a comeback than normal for the Giants with the weather conditions, but ultimately the better team on the day won that game.
Next, the Seahawks -3 vs. the Ravens & here finally the Russell Wilson backpack was finally too heavy for him to carry the team anymore & he had a relatively bad game with a QBR of 65.2 (37.4 less than his previous worst game) and a line of 241-1-1. This was another wet game & one where the Ravens defense finally showed that they can hang with the best of them after a brief hiatus the last few weeks. This was another case of “any given Sunday” a good team can beat another good team and that’s what happened here. Then we had the Jets +10 vs. the Patriots and we saw two completely different Jets teams from week to week here. Their offense looked above average against Dallas and then against New England they were bullied or maybe spooked as Sam Darnold might tell you. Maybe the Jets are one of those teams that looks good against average teams but gets exposed by the league's best teams. Finally, the 49ers -9.5 @ Redskins & this game was totally ruined by the weather and I almost want to take the win for this one. Washington was an actual Slip 'n Slide so all odds and most predictions should be thrown out the window once that’s known. San Fran’s defense appears to be the real deal though. Now on to this week's games.
Against The Spread
PICK: Seattle -8.5 @ Falcons, Confidence - 4 / 5.
Matt Ryan has been ruled out for this game and I would’ve been comfortable taking the Seahawks -8.5 had Ryan been playing. With the current rosters, Seattle is a better team in every phase of football. I think Seattle comes out with an extra bit of “jump” in this game given the result last week losing by 2 TD’s at home.
PICK: Colts -5 vs. Broncos, Confidence - 4 / 5.
This line confuses me. The Colts shut down a red hot Texans team last week and now get a Broncos team who was just embarrassed by a Matt Moore led Chiefs, at home, on Thursday Night Football. To top it all off, they just traded away Emmanuel Sanders which slots in Courtland Sutton as the WR1. The Colts offense has been playing well, and I expect the Broncos offense to be out of sync and sloppy now with someone getting more snaps than usual with Sanders gone. I think the Colts -5 at home is a no brainer here.
PICK: Rams -11.5 vs. Bengals, Confidence - 4 / 5.
This is yet another confusing line. The Rams were 2 TD favourites and have since moved to 11.5 point favourites. The Bengals are the only team as bad as Miami being both winless so far this season. This game is being played in London so while you might think that’s a benefit for the Bengals, it’s still a road game for both teams and the Bengals are a juicy 0-10 in their last 10 road games. Jared Goff and the Rams offense looked better last week against a soft Falcons defense & fortunately for them, the Bengals are actually worse than the Falcons allowing the most yards, most rushing yards, and most yards per attempt rushing league wide. The most I can see the Bengals scoring is maybe 10 points and I strongly believe the Rams will top 22 points, so I’m confidently taking the rams here.
PICK: Texans -6.5 vs. Raiders, Confidence - 3 / 5.
The Raiders were just torched by the Packers at Lambeau and now get another road game against an at least equal offense to the Packers in the Texans. The Raiders are good at shutting down the run but aren’t great against the pass giving up the second-most yards and net yards per attempt. I think the clear focal point of this offense is the passing game and I think the Texans will have relative ease moving the ball downfield against the Raiders secondary. The Raiders offensively have relied on the run game to move the ball ranking 8th in rush attempts, 6th in yards, and 12th in TDs while their passing attack is mediocre. The Texans are among the best in the league defensively against the run and I think because of this the Raiders will struggle to move the ball offensively.
PICK: 49ers -5 vs. Panthers, Confidence - 3 / 5.
This is a rather close game because of the Panthers coming off the bye, but matchup wise this game favours the 49ers. Both teams offensively have been very good running the ball and suspect at times passing the ball. The benefit for the 49ers here is that their run defense is much better than the Panthers. In fact, the 49ers don’t really allow anything on defense ranking second in points for and second in overall yards allowed. This will be a close, low scoring game and the 49ers will pull out a win by a touchdown.
PICK: Saints -12.5 vs. Cardinals, Confidence - 3 / 5
I’m not really sure why Drew Brees plays in this game unless he’s actually 100% healthy. The Saints have a bye next week and were already 10 point favourites before Brees was named the starter. Why rush Brees back from a relatively severe injury if he isn’t 100% healthy? The Saints have a bye next week so I believe Brees is in fact fully healthy despite beating his timeline for return by a week. The Saints defense has been strong all year and the offense gets back Brees as well as potentially Kamara which makes the Saints offense a whole lot more scary. With all that said, the Cardinals have shown the ability to keep games close and have played well this year, so giving almost 2 TD’s to them is somewhat tall, but I think the Saints at home are very strong, especially offensively, Saints -12.5.