NFL Pick 6: Week 9
Updated: Nov 21, 2020
Welcome to my edition of the weekly “Pick 6” article series here at Locked-In Football. If you’ve been following along with this article the past two weeks, congratulations, you should be up money! Now here’s this week’s Pick 6 to continue that trend.
Let’s get into it.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 88.5 scrimmage yards (-110)
This one is pretty simple in that the line is just way too low. I understand that McCaffrey is just coming off a high-ankle sprain, but he’s had seven weeks to recover. This is one of the best running backs in the NFL, let’s not pretend like Mike Davis is going to take away significant work from a top running back in the league.
If this was a line for Alvin Kamara, bettors would be hammering the over, and McCaffrey is debatably better (or more utilized) than Kamara when healthy, and I believe McCaffrey is 100% healthy. The Chiefs are currently averaging allowing 153.5 scrimmage yards per game. Is Christian McCaffrey an above-average back? If your answer to that question is yes, take the over, if your answer is no, you’ve got some Panthers game’s to rewatch.
Washington Football Team -3 vs. New York Giants (-110)
In Week 8, Daniel Jones was under pressure on 35.6% of his dropbacks, which caused some of his detrimental decisions as the game progressed. Daniel Jones is currently the most blitzed QB in the league, and coming off the bye, I expect Washington to carry a similar game plan that clearly most other teams have employed.
Jones clearly struggles when under pressure, and I think Washington can apply that pressure with their strong defensive front. Defensively, the Giants have been pretty average, which should allow for Washington to game plan without any constraint offensively. Daniel Jones under pressure will be the story of this game, and I think the turnovers that come from this will aid Washington in covering three points.
Justin Herbert OVER 264.5 passing yards (-110)
This line almost feels like cheating. In his six games so far this season, Herbert has topped that total in five out of those six games. What happened in the sixth game you might ask? Herbert totaled 264 passing yards, missing the mark by a single passing yard.
If that wasn’t enough to convince you, the Raiders are currently averaging 260 passing yards allowed, however, that total includes Baker Mayfield’s 122 passing yard performance last week due to the weather. This game is projected to be a shootout as the total points line is set to 52.5 at the time of writing. This game is in SoFi Stadium, where there will be no weather concerns and no strong defensive opposition. Let’s not overthink this one, Herbert will top 264.5 passing yards.
Baltimore Ravens OVER 23.5 points (-110)
The Ravens have only scored less than 24 points one time so far this year, and that was in their blowout loss to the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed 21 or more points in their last three weeks to the Lions, Bengals, and Browns. I think we can all agree that the Ravens offense is at least equal to the previous three teams mentioned.
The Colts defense has been pretty good this season, however, in recent weeks, they’ve looked much worse than they did to start the season. Despite the total points line, I think the Ravens will have plenty of opportunities to score points in this game, thanks to Rivers being as turnover prone as he is, and the Ravens being a top 10 defense in turnovers and turnover percentage. I like the Ravens to win the game, and score more than 23 points in doing so.
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (+110)
Listen, the Seahawks have been allowing literally everything on defense this season, while Josh Allen has a rushing touchdown in half of his games this season. Josh Allen is currently the second-highest quarterback in rushing attempts within the five-yard line (goal-line work) and has four touchdowns within that range. That mark is also good for 15th among every offensive player league-wide.
This is another game that Vegas is projecting to be a shootout, as the current point total is set to 55, which is the highest of the week. I’m not sure the Bills coaching staff currently trusts either running back, which is why you’re seeing a split backfield. This means that in goal-line scenarios, the Bills’ coaching staff would trust Josh Allen with those carries, rather than any of the running backs. The Bills should have plenty of opportunities to be in goal-line situations in this game, so a Josh Allen touchdown is pretty likely here.
Cowboys UNDER 14.5 total points (-110)
There is pretty much zero doubt in my mind that Mike McCarthy has lost the Cowboys locker room. In their last three games, the Cowboys have scored 22 points combined, an average of just over 7 points per game. In Week 9, the Cowboys will be rolling out Garrett Gilbert, a first-time starter with 40 career passing yards despite being 29 years old.
Gilbert, who will be making his first start since being drafted by the St. Louis Rams in 2014, will get the liberty of seeing a Steelers defense that has been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks all year. If that wasn’t enough, Gilbert will also be without Zeke Elliot to help try to alleviate any sort of pressure. Expect TJ Watt and the Steelers defense to give the Cowboys a lot of trouble offensively, and the Steelers to walk away with this one by a large margin.
EXTRA POINT: Dalvin Cook OVER 108.5 scrimmage yards (-110)
Did you watch Cook run all over the Packers (30-164-3, 2-63-1) last week like I did? The Lions are just as bad, currently allowing an average of 164.2 scrimmage yards to running backs.
The Lions are without Kenny Golladay and Matthew Stafford will be playing on zero practice reps, if he’s even cleared to play. Why is this relevant? If the Lions struggle to move the ball at all, Dalvin Cook should see plenty of carries against one of the worst defenses to his position, and I believe the conditions are set for Cook to see plenty of work like he did last week.