NFL Pick 6: Week 8
Updated: 6 days ago
NYJ Team total under 14.5 -138
The Jets haven’t scored more than 10 points in any of their last 3 games, only scoring a total of
20 points in that stretch. Kansas City is averaging just over 20 points against this year versus some much better scoring offenses than the measly Jets. The Jets had just 190 total yards against the Bills last week with about 180 in the first half and are simply a team that struggles to move the ball and rarely scores points.
LAR @ MIA - LAR -3.5 -105
The Rams showed on Monday night that they are a legit defense with a good enough offense to win games. This is a generous line for an overachieving Miami team with a rookie QB making his
first career start, not to mention a potentially divided and dumbfounded locker room wondering if this really is ‘Tua time’ with Fitzmagic and the Dolphins rolling the way they were.
The Rams are 4-1 this season ATS in victories and 5-2 money line. These losses came only to divisional rival San Francisco in a game in which but not for a goal line stand by SF could have ended much different and to Buffalo - a game in which the Rams played maybe their worst half of the year thus far going down 28-3 early in the 3rd quarter and narrowly failing the comeback attempt falling 35-32.
Keenan Allen Over 6.5 Receptions +110
Since Justin Herbert has taken over as QB for the Chargers, Allen has had 40 receptions on 55 targets in 5 games averaging 8 receptions on 11 targets. Unlike last week's snow covered game
in Denver this week it is a perfect sunny Fall day at Mile High Stadium. The Chargers will find a way to put the ball in their best playmakers hands early and often in this game.
IND @ DET - Total FGs Over 3.5 -120
The Colts and Lions have combined for 5.7 FG attempts per game with Indy 1st in the NFL and
the Lions tied for 3rd for attempts thus far. Rodrigo Blankenship has not only the best name in football but is also currently one of the best kickers in the game, going 16/18 thus far in his rookie campaign. Matt Prater on the other hand has been one of football’s best place kickers for many years. These two combine for 4.6 FG made per game and with two offenses that can struggle to score in the red zone I expect nothing less than lots of balls through the uprights this game.
LV @ CLE - Total Over 50.5 -110
This number is interesting to me given these two teams and their offences this year. Cleveland is scoring 28.5 ppg while allowing 31.5 ppg, while the Raiders are scoring 28.5 ppg while allowing 33 ppg. Everything in this one is pointing to a shootout between the Browns and the Raiders here
in Cleveland. The Browns have hit the over in 5 of 7 games, the 2 unders being blowout losses to the Ravens and Steelers. Meanwhile the Raiders have hit the over in 5 of 6 games with the remaining game resulting in a push against the Bills. Expecting a competitive game, the over feels good here.
Derrick Henry Over 101.5 Rushing yards -120
Derrick Henry has been an absolute beast this year and with three 100 yard games this season
and a juicy matchup up against a Bengals defense giving up 133.7 rushing yards per game this looks like a good line here. Henry is averaging a mind blowing 24 carries per game. The Bengals are allowing 4.9 yards per carry, that's an expected run total of 117.6 yards for Henry here. I expect the Titans to have a lead for most of this game and run Henry early and often.
Extra Point: Nelson Agholor Over 36.5 Receiving Yards -120
I’ll keep this short and sweet, Agholor is quickly becoming Carr’s favourite target and has surpassed this mark in each of his last 3 games, with a good matchup here he should keep it rolling.